Национальной академии наук республики казахстан

ISSN 2224-5278                                                                                 Серия геологии  и технических наук. № 6. 2016 
 
 
81 
 
О. М. Белослюдцев, Н. Б. Узбеков, Л. Т. Бахарева, Е. М. Мусаев 
 
Сейсмология институты, Алматы, Қазақстан  
 
ЭЛЕКТРМАГНИТ ӨРІСІНІҢ ТӨМЕН ЖИІЛІКТІ  
ВАРИАЦИЯЛАРЫН ТАЛДАУ 
 
Аннотация. Мақалада 1993–2015 жылдар аралығындағы Алматы болжау полигонында дискреттілігі 1 
минуттық  режимдік  геомагниттік  бақылаулардың  уақыттық  қатарларын  талдау  нəтижелері  көрсетілген. 
Төмен жиілікті геомагниттік вариациялардың морфологиялық ерекшеліктері мен кеңістікті-уақыттық сипат-
тамалары зерттелген. Өзара спектрлердің функцияларын, өзара корреляциялық функцияларын, магнит өрісі-
нің тербелмелі процесінің энергиясын көрсететін «график ұзындығының» өзгерістерін есептеулер магнитва-
риациялық станцияларға тікелей жақын маңда болған жер сілкіністерінің аралығы бірінші тəуліктерден бір 
айдан аз уақытқа дейінгі қысқа мерзімді аномалияларын айқындауға мүмкіндік береді. 
Түйін сөздер: Алматы болжау полигоны, төмен жиілікті геомагниттік вариациялар, геомагниттік өріс-
тің модулі, магнитвариациялық станциялар, өзара спектрлер, өзара корреляциялық функция, бағдарламалық 
құралдар, сейсмикалық оқиғалар, аномалиялар, жер сілкіністерінің нышандары. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Известия Национальной академии наук Республики Казахстан  
 
 
   
82  
Гидрология
 
 
 
 
 
 
N E W S 
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN 
SERIES OF GEOLOGY AND TECHNICAL SCIENCES 
ISSN 2224-5278 
Volume 6, Number 420 (2016), 82 – 89
 
 
 
UDC 626.81(574.5) 
 
A. A. Tursunova, A. A. Saparova 
 
Institute of Geography, Almaty, Kazakhstan 
 
TEMPORAL FLUCTUATIONS OF WATER RESOURCES  
OF SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST KAZAKHSTAN
 
 
Abstract.  Analysis of publications on a global scale forces us to admit that the world is undergoing global 
changes in climate, water resources, and also there are significant changes in geographic environment. Over the past 
25–30 years, Kazakhstan has experienced the most severe changes in the main factors that determine the fluctuations 
of water resources and their changes in time and territory, which include the drastic alterations in socio-economic 
sphere and the observed climate change.  
The present studies are devoted to urgent problems of the current state and the change in the patterns of 
formation and distribution of surface water resources of South and South-East Kazakhstan.  
Water resources of the southern region of the country are considered in view of the changing factors in for-
mation of water resources: the hydrological regime, economic activities in the catchment basins and the possible 
global and regional climate change.  
In the long-term dynamics of the water resources of South and South-East Kazakhstan, there is some tendency 
to increase all over the place. As for total water resources of the region for the modern period, they are slightly higher 
than this characteristic for the long-term period. Analysis of data shows that there are no existing significant trends of 
water resources of the river basins under consideration. Though some increase in water content, substantiated by 
quantitative values of the runoff, takes place. 
The conducted studies of the distribution of water resources over the territory and changes over time can pro-
vide a secure basis for long-term planning and development of large-scale activities for the integrated management 
and protection of water resources and for solving the complex problems of water supply in the southern regions of 
river basins of Kazakhstan. 
Keywords: runoff, river basin, water resources, long-term fluctuations, dynamics of the water resources. 
 
Introduction. The environmentally tense situation in all regions of Kazakhstan, formed nowadays, is 
aggravated due to problems of water supply for the areas and because water basins and major waterways 
are transboundary. Timely specification of the existing water resources in our country, as well as their use, 
is one of the first tasks in the modern hydrology of Kazakhstan. Problems of study of modern fluctuations 
and changes in the course of river runoff are becoming more urgent due to ongoing changes in the climatic 
system of the Earth and the strengthening of anthropogenic impact on water resources.  
Distinguished in studies of long-term fluctuations of river runoff. Basins of rivers of South and 
South-East Kazakhstan were relatively well studied in hydrological aspect, this include the Aral-Syrda-
riya, Shu-Talas and Balkhash-Alakol water-economic basins (figure 1). First glimpse of the norm of river 
runoff of the south region of Kazakhstan were performed by Schultz V.L. (Schulz V.L., 1965) and Zaikov 
B.D. (Zaikov B.D., 1946), more detailed studies were conducted before 70-ies of the last century Sosedov 

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83 
et al. (Sosedov I.S. et al. 1984; Surface water resources of the USSR. Central Asia. Basin of the Syrdariya 
river, 1969; Surface water resources of the USSR, 1973; Surface water resources of the USSR, 1970; 
Lavrentyev P.F. et al. 1963; Korovin V.I., 1966; Boldyrev V.M., 1965). The analysis of the hydrological 
study of rivers shows that while large and medium rivers are characterized by systematic and rather long-
lasting observations, for small rivers there are only separate scattered data.  
The study of temporal patterns of fluctuations of river runoff in time and space is one of the most 
complicated problems. The following main trends can be distinguished in studies of long-term fluctuations 
of river runoff: 
1) the study of century-long and intra-century runoff fluctuations to identify groupings of low-water 
and high-water years, their duration and repeatability, as well as identification of areas with synchronous 
and asynchronous runoff fluctuations; 
2) study of the links between runoff fluctuations, synoptical and heliophysical processes (types of 
atmospheric circulation, cycles of solar activity and others, etc.); 
3) study of long-term runoff fluctuations in time and space with the help of differential integral curves; 
4) study of long-term runoff fluctuations in time with the help of Markov's A.A. discrete chains. 
The point of the first trend is modeling, i.e. artificial reconstruction of long runoff series through one 
of the variants of the Monte-Carlo method. The fundamentals and calculating techniques of that method 
with regard to hydrological and water-economic objectives were developed by Svanidze [30] and the idea 
and a principal scheme of modeling of the level of drainage basins on the basis of the Monte-Carlo method 
was suggested by Khomeriki (Khomeriki I.V., 1979). Monte-Carlo method allows to obtain information 
about the selective distribution in such cases when the common theory of selective distributions is help-
less. But this method does not take into account the difference in a calendar sequence of members of 
sampling and the general population. 
 
 
 
Figure 1 – Hydrographic scheme of river basins of South and South-East Kazakhstan 
 
1. In the second trend, numerous studies on availability of links between runoff fluctuations, synoptic 
and heliophysical processes were conducted. In order to clarify physical reasons of formation of low-water 
and high-water periods on the territory of the northern hemisphere, many researches (Belinskiy N.A, 
Kalinin G.P., 1976; Smirnova K.I., 1974; Girs A.A., 1987; Afanasyev A.N., 1967; Shnitnikov A.V.,1950; 
Baidal M.Kh., 1964; Korovin V.I., 1964; Kurdin N.D., 1990; Andreyanov V. G., 1959; Aniksina N.A., 
1970; Giorgio Z.V., 1957; Druzhinin I.P., 1966) tried to find a connection between fluctuations of annual 

Известия Национальной академии наук Республики Казахстан  
 
 
   
84  
runoff and W, C, E (western, meridional, eastern) types (forms) of atmospheric circulation on Wangen-
heim, Girs or on B.L. Dzerdzeyevskiy (Girs A.A., 1987; To study the dynamics, 2005). 
Despite the dependence of river runoff fluctuations on the types of atmospheric circulation and 
indices of solar activity, described in a number of studies, its definition is very difficult. Fluctuations in 
annual river runoff over long periods of time in some cases repeat changes of fluctuations of indices with 
the types of atmospheric circulation and solar activity, in others they are opposite and in the third case 
they have an independent character. 
2. However, the researchers of the Institute of Geography of the RK made an attempt to find the 
interrelationship of hydrological characteristics and repeatability of ECM (elementary circulation mecha-
nisms) on B.L. Dzerdzeyevskiy, measured by numbers of days, based on the direct accounting of the 
nature of atmospheric circulations; though this method has yet to be considered not as a forecast but rather 
an evaluation of influence and illustration of scenarios of synchronous development of natural processes in 
atmosphere and hydrosphere (Druzhinin I.P. et al, 1966). 
3. The third trend – a way of differential integral curve to evaluate the cyclical fluctuations of many 
natural phenomena was for the first time proposed (Andreyanov V.G., 1959) for the first time started to 
make a comparative analysis of heterogeneous material on the basis of normalization of differential inte-
gral curves of modular coefficients. The differential integral curves are widely used to identify the phases 
of high and low water content of rivers, the points of change of phases. The comparison of the course of 
the study characteristic on different rivers is ideal only in case of the same composition of years of original 
series, which is not always possible in the practice of hydrological observations. In case of super-century 
course the marked inaccuracies will be exacerbated depending on the value of changeability of the ele-
ment. Thus, the calculation of ordinates from the middle and the construction of differential integral curve 
on them does not always reflect the actual conditions of the full cyclic process. 
4. The forth trend in the study of long-term fluctuations of river runoff with the use of Markov's 
discrete chains allows discovering the patterns of transition of runoff phases and their difference in various 
basins. Markov's chain with discrete time is a chain, changes in the states of which occur in the certain 
fixed points of time. First of all, the relative simplicity of the quantitative evaluation of the analyzed rela-
tionships should be attributed to the advantages of this method, as well as the possibility of practical use in 
water-economic calculations. However, it would be not correct to assert about unidirectional changes 
without the analysis of reliability of availability of trends. There is a number of methods to check the 
availability of linear unidirectional changes. 
Methods to check the availability of linear unidirectional changes. Methods of averaging values 
with the further graphic representation of their course are also accepted in the statistics. Sliding averages 
are generally used with data of temporal series to smooth out short-term fluctuations and to distinguish 
key trends or cycles. Mathematically, the sliding average is one of types of verification, and can therefore 
be considered as a low-pass filter, used in signals processing.  
Identification of linear trends was carried out for three periods: 1) for a long-term period; 2) for the 
period from the beginning of observations till 1972–1973; 3) for the current period (from 1973–1974 to 
2007). 
In the long-term dynamics of water resources everywhere there is some tendency to increasing (figu-
re 2). Summary water resources of the region for the current period are slightly higher than this charac-
teristics for a long-term period. The increase of runoff of winter and the beginning of spring periods is 
particularly noticeable.  
In our case, the methodology, widely applicable in hydrology and meteorology (Research Report 
2005; Polyak I.I., 1975), is used. According to this methodology, based on the check of statistical signifi-
cance of parameters of the trend, the following equation of linear regression is calculated: 
 
t
a
a
t
Y
1
0


 
where Y(t) – the values of the study water resources (river basin); t – the serial number of the observed 
value; a
0, 
a
1 
– the regression coefficients. 
To accept the hypothesis about the presence of a linear trend on the methodology of I.I. Polyak it is 
necessary to meet the following conditions: 
,
2



 
 
1
2
1
a
a


 

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85 
y = 1,39x - 1887
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1912
1917
1922
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Q, m
3
/s
years
Syrdariya  river - above the  estuary of the river 
Keles
 
y = 0,032x - 46
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Q, m
3
/s
years
Talas river - 1,0 km downstream of the dam 
Zheimbet
 
y = 0,02x - 21,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Q, m
3
/s
years
Tekes river - village Tekes
y = 0,13x + 43,1
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
Q, m
3
/s
years
Tentek river - village Tonkeris
Figure 2 – Long-term fluctuations of runoff of the major rivers of South and South-East Kazakhstan 
 
where
 

2
 – the dispersion of deviation of the observed values from the line of the trend, where the cate-
gory is defined as follows:  

2 
= 

2 
(1-R
2
) 
1
a

 – the average quadratic deviation of the regression coefficient а
1
, which is defined as follows: 
1
a

=

 
If the conditions (2) are not met, the linear trend is not significant with the probability of 5 % 
(Polyak I.I., 1975). 
The considered method is effective with normally distributed sampling (of «white noise»). However, 
the runoff series usually do not meet that condition, so the evaluation of the linear trend, and hence, the 
output of stationarity of the original series, is justified to the extend when the initial information differs 
from the normal distribution. 
The check of the presence of the linear trend, series of water resources of river basins of South 
and South-East Kazakhstan. Thus, the identification of linear trends by the given method was carried 
out for the three periods: 1) for a long-term period; 2) for the period from the beginning of the obser-
vations till 1972-1973; 3) for the current period (from 1973-1974 to 2007). The results of calculations of 
some of the stations are shown in Table.  
In order to identify patterns of fluctuations of river runoff let us refer to the analysis of differential 
integral curves of the annual runoff: the course in the time of the accumulated difference Σ(ki-1)/C
v
, at 
which the phase of rise of curve means high-water period (runoff of the sampling average), a recession - 
low-water (below average), and a point of inflection – the boundaries of those periods (Bronstein I.N., 
1967; Davletgaliyev S.K, 2000; Rozhdestvenskiy A.V., 1974).  
The course of the integral curves of the major rivers of South and South-East Kazakhstan is shown in 
figure 4. The long homogenous series were previously chosen for the major rivers of the region. It follows 
out of the calculations that on the major rivers of the basin of Syrdariya river two  phases  including  small 

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86  
The check of the presence of the linear trend, series of water resources of river basins of South and South-East Kazakhstan 
 
№ River-settlement  Period 
Dispersions 
 
 
Significance 
of the trend 
 
 
 
1 
Syrdariya river – above 
the mouth of the Keles 
river 
1912-2007 34641  36685  1,39 
13,9 
– 
1912-1972 36225  38202  2,34 
22,4 
– 
1973-2007 32311  34539  8,21 
37,3 
– 
2 
Arys river – Zhaskeshu 
village 
1912-2007 1,39  1,46  0,004  0,088 
– 
1912-1972 1,70  1,80  0,018  0,15 
– 
1973-2007 0,86  0,89  0,036  0,19 
– 
1973-2002 77,2  100  0,41  2,01 
– 
3 
Talas river – in 1,0 km 
lower then Zheimbet 
dam* 
1929-2002 21,2  24,2  0,032  0,36 
– 
1929-1972 28,1  32,2  -0,014  0,65 
– 
1973-2002 
10,9  12,1 -0,12 0,70 
– 
4 
Assa river – r-w.st. 
Maimak* 
1929-2002 6,34  7,85  0,025  0,20 
– 
1929-1972 8,64  11,0  0,035  0,38 
– 
1973-2002 2,85  3,16  0,063  0,36 
– 
5 
Sharyn river – 
Sarytogai hole 
1930-2006 
73,1 53,3 0,14 0,77 
– 
1930-1973 56,4  51,2 
0,2 
1,17 
– 
1974-2006 
93,6 50,7 0,68 2,13 
– 
6 
Turgen river – 
Tauturgen village 
1930-2006 1,17  1,11  0,007  0,10 
– 
1930-1973 1,08  1,07  0,008  0,16 
– 
1974-2006 1,31  1,14  0,056  0,25 
– 
7 Tekeli 
–Tekeli 
1930-2006 0,46  0,45  0,003  0,06 
– 
1930-1973 0,45  0,45  0,006  0,10 
– 
1974-2006 0,49  0,41  0,034  0,15 
– 
8 
Eginsu river – 
Blagodatnoye village 
1930-2006 0,63  0,65  0,006  0,06 
– 
1930-1973 0,83  0,84  0,011  0,10 
– 
1974-2006 0,32  0,42  0,037  0,13 
– 
1930-1973 6,49  6,49  0,049  0,29 
– 
1974-2006 
2,40 3,65 0,11 0,38 
– 
9 
Tentek river – Tonkeris 
village 
1930-2006 127  128  0,13  0,82 
– 
1930-1973 140  140  0,38  1,36 
– 
1974-2006 109  115  0,43  2,15 
– 
 
cycles are distinguished in the course of runoff: high-water from 1912 to 1972 and low-water 1973, some 
increase in runoff in the end of 80-ies and in the beginning of 90-ies was observed.
 
The year of 1969 was the high-water year for the Syrdariya river, after that a sharp decrease of river 
runoff till 90-ies is observed, in the last decades (1991-2007) an increase in runoff is traced. There is a 
synchrony in the course of runoff of all river basins of the Syrdariya river with slight differences in 
fluctuations in 1-2 years. 
On the rivers of the basin of rivers Shu and Talas (figure 4) from 1936 to 2009 there are 3 periods of 
different water content in the region. 1 cycle – from 1936 to 1950 a decrease of runoff was observed. The 
second low-water cycle was from 1960 to 1975-ies and the third cycle was from 1989 to 1996. Each time 
the duration of each cycle decreased from 15 to 7 years.  
On the rivers of the study region high-water years were from 1951 to 1959 and from 1975 to 1989,          
as well as after 1996 there is an increase of river runoff. The duration of  high-water  periods  is  9  and                     
15 years.  
1
a
1
2
a

2

2


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87 
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1912
1917
1922
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007

(k
-1
)/
C
v
years
Arys river - village Zhaskeshu
Syrdariya river - above estuary of the river Keles
Shu river - village Blagoveshenskoe
Talas river - reservoir  Temirbek
Tentek river - village Tonkeris
Urzhar river - village Kazymbet
Sharyn river - village Sarytogai
Turgen river - village Tauturgen
 
 
Figure 4 – The superposed integral curves of modular coefficients of major rivers of South and South-East Kazakhstan 
 
The following two main elements are distinguished on the majority of integral curves of the Balkhash 
river basin: peak (transition from high-water to low-water phase) – from the middle of 50-ies till the end 
of 70-ies, minimum from 40-ies till the middle of 50-ies. On some curves there is a minor third element – 
a small peak in the end of 30-ies. Even a tendency to alternation of anomalies sign is typical for the Ile 
river. The cyclicality of runoff with a duration of 11-12, 5-6 and 3 years is observed. Here, the earlier 
made findings on the absence of a clear territorial localization of the long-term course of annual runoff 
neither within the Ile nor Zhetysu Alatau are confirmed. Some asymmetry is observed in the course of 
runoff of the Ile and Zhetysu Alatau, which is associated with the difference in the conditions of feeding 
of rivers (Galperin R.I., 1986; Sosedov et al. 1984.). To the analysis conducted before by other authors it 
can only be added (Galperin R.I., 1986; Galperin R.I., 1990; Research Report 1987; Sosedov I.S., 1976; 
Coll. of scientific proceedings 1993; Water resources Coll. of scientific proceedings 1993) that a signi-
ficant change of the course of differential integral curve at all stations of the catchment basin of the Ile 
river is observed since 1970, that cannot be explained only by the influence of anthropogenic factor on 
runoff, possibly the ongoing climate changes increase the runoff of glacier-fed rivers in recent decades.  
In the basin of the Alakol lake, in general, fluctuations of water content of rivers of the study region 
are synchronous. The certain features are caused by orographical features and geographical location.  
In the basin of the Tentek river in 50-ies and in 1974-1986 low water periods, and in 1951-1973 and 
in 1987-2007 high-water periods were observed. There are some features in fluctuations of water content 
of rivers of northern basins of the study area, for example, such as in the Tentek river. Thus, while the 
Tentek river in 1962-1968 was characterized by high-water, other rivers of the study area were charac-
terized by low-water during the same period. 
2 main phases can be distinguished on the most part of integral curves: from 1912 (1928-30) to 1972-
73 - the high-water phase and from 1973-74 to the mid 80-ies - the low-water phase. Later, starting from 
1984-86, the beginning of rise of the curve is observed, i.e. high-water phase, which is continuing till 
present. This period (1986-2007) differs with minor fluctuations of runoff during 2-3 years and the change 
of rise and fall of the curve.  

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