Research method
The research of Silk Road sustainable development is on the basis of previous
work. we use modern technologies and integrate new methods to analysis ecological
environment and disaster inducement factors. The method is scientifically and
practicality, and also can predict major disaster events.
Landscape analysis is focused on landscape pattern definition and landscape
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function classification. Scientists in Russia and Kazakhstan make an important progress
in this field, such as Maccay V.B. Sochava. The main feature of landscape ecological
analysis is to reveal the feature of natural elements and artificial effects, so as to
reflect the relevance and relationship between landscape factors. Landscape analysis
is focused on landscape function and diagnoses the landscape situation. Landscape
analysis is an important qualitative analysis. It can reveal the distribution, structure
and function of landscape in a region. But it does not give quantitative results, such as
development level, damage level and driving factors of landscape.
European and American scientists, such as Carl Troll (German), A.G. Tansley
(German), T.T. Richard Forman (U.S.) and M. Godron (France) and so on, are focused
on measure landscape characteristics by quantitative indexes. Landscape index analysis
is focused on quantitative and positioning research on landscape pattern. It involves a
large number of spatial data acquisition, RS and GIS work.
Based on the above analyses, we can fully understand landscape pattern and
function by combining landscape analysis with landscape index analysis. That is
using landscape analysis to research landscape pattern distribution and landscape
index analysis to do quantitative analysis on landscape pattern change process. This is
necessary for Silk Road ecological disaster analysis. But there is no unified landscape
index in the world yet. we choose six main indexes as the base of landscape index
analysis to research ecological disaster.
1. Patch density index: PD
Patch density index is the ratio of plaques number in Silk Road and the total Silk
Road area.
PD: Patch density index; Σn
i
: Total number of all landscape plaques or number
of a certain type of landscape plaque in the research area; A: The total area of the
research area or total area of one certain type of landscape plaque.
2. Fragmentation index: FN
FN: Fragmentation index; N
P
: Total number of all landscape plaques; N
c
: The
ratio of total area and smallest plaque area. FN (0,1), 0: Landscape is completely
untouched; 1: Landscape is completely destroyed.
Fragmentation reflects the fragmentation level of landscape. It also reflects the
complexity of landscape spatial structure, the total number of landscape patches, and
the ratio of total area and smallest plaque area. Fragmentation has great influence
on ecological disaster. The increase of landscape fragmentation is a main reason of
disaster.
3. Separation index: N
CUI WEI-HONG , JIANG YANG-MING , YU.N. GOLUBCHIKOV,
K.K. RAKHIMOV, A.D. SOBYANIN, V.S. TIKUNOV
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N
i
: Separation index of landscape type “i”; D
i
: Distance index of landscape type
«i»; S
i
: Area index of landscape type «i».
A: Total area of the research area; n: The total number of landscape plaque which
type is «i».
A: The total area of the research area; A
i
: The total area of landscape plaque
which type is «i».
Separation index reflects the dispersion of different patches in a landscape. The
greater the separation, the farther the distance between different patches in landscape,
and the number of patches is relatively fewer. It plays certain restriction role in
ecological disaster events.
4. Diversity index: H
H: Diversity index; P
i
= N
i
/N; m: Number of landscape types;
Landscape diversity indicator reflects the number and the proportion of landscape
elements. Landscape diversity index and landscape damage index are positively
correlated.
5. Dominance index: D
H
max
=log
2
(m): Maximum of diversity index; D: Dominance index of the
landscape.
Dominance index reflects one or a few indexes that dominate the landscape. That
is the importance of the index in landscape. Large dominance index reflects landscape
is dominated by one or a few indexes. Small dominance index reflects the difference
between indexes is small and the dominance of different indexes is almost the same.
6. Evenness index: E
E: Evenness index; H: Shannon diversity index; H
max
= Maximum of Shannon
diversity index.
Evenness index reflects evenness degree of different landscape types in the
region. Evenness index and dominance index are negatively correlated. If evenness is
low and landscape is prone to disasters, then major disaster is likely to happen.
The six indexes above provide important quantitative data for ecological hazard
analysis and scientific basis for disaster perdition in corridor region.
Resources Satellite in monitoring ecological change process of Silk Road
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Satellite
Country
Spatial
Resolution
Spectral Range
(um)
Revisit cycle
Repeat Cycle
Image
China- Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS)
China
Pan : 2.36m
Pan : 0.5 ~ 0.8
26 days
Multi Spectral: 19.5m (nadir)
Blue : 0.45-0.52 Green : 0.52-0.59 Red : 0.63-0.69 Near
-IR (infrared) : 0.77-0.89
B5 : 0.51-0.73
HJ-1A
/1B
China
30m
Blue : 0.43-0.52 Green : 0.52-0.60 Red : 0.63-0.69 Near IR : 0.76-0.90
4 days
CUI WEI-HONG , JIANG YANG-MING , YU.N. GOLUBCHIKOV,
K.K. RAKHIMOV, A.D. SOBYANIN, V.S. TIKUNOV
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Satellite
Country
Spatial
Resolution
Spectral Range
(um)
Revisit cycle
Repeat Cycle
Image
SP
o
T
French
Pan: 2.5m
Pan : 0.48-0.71
1 to 3 days
26 days
Multi Spectral: 10m (nadir)
Green : 0.50-0.59 Red : 0.61-0.68 Near IR : 0.78-0.89
MIR: 20m (nadir)
Mid infrared (MIR) : 1.58-1.75
Quickbird
America
Pan: 0.61m (nadir)
Pan : 0.45-0.90
1 to 3 days
20 days
Multi Spectral : 2.44m (nadir)
Blue : 0.45-0.52 Green : 0.52-0.60 Red : 0.63-0.69 Near IR : 0.76-0.90
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Satellite
Country
Spatial
Resolution
Spectral Range
(um)
Revisit cycle
Repeat Cycle
Image
Ikonos
America
Pan : 1m
Pan : 0.45-0.90
3-4 days
14 days
Multi Spectral : 4m
Blue : 0.45-0.53 Green : 0.52-0.61 Red : 0.64-0.72 Near IR : 0.77-0.88
Alos
Japan
Pan : 2.5m (nadir)
Pan : 0.52~0.77
2 days
46 days
Multi Spectral: 10m(nadir)
Blue : 0.42-0.50 Green : 0.52-0.60 Red : 0.61-0.69 Near IR : 0.76-0.89
CUI WEI-HONG , JIANG YANG-MING , YU.N. GOLUBCHIKOV,
K.K. RAKHIMOV, A.D. SOBYANIN, V.S. TIKUNOV
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Satellite
Country
Spatial
Resolution
Spectral Range
(um)
Revisit cycle
Repeat Cycle
Image
Landsat-7
America
Pan : 15m
Pan : 0.52-0.90
16 days
Multi Spectral : 30m
Blue : 0.45-0.52 Green : 0.52-0.60 Red : 0.63-0.69 Near IR : 0.76-0.90 MIR : 1.55-1.75 Thermal IR : 10.40-12.5 MIR : 2.09-2.35
DEIM
o
S-1
Spain
22m
Green : 0.52-0.60 Red : 0.63-0.69 Near IR : 0.77-0.90
3 days
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Disaster monitoring and prediction in Silk Road.
Based on RS and GIS technologies, we create an index system to determine
disaster risk level and create a disaster model to predict disasters through landscape
analysis and landscape index analysis.
Disaster prediction process in Silk Road
According to landscape analysis and landscape index analysis mentioned above,
we obtained landscape map (Figure 1), altitude map (Figure 2), slope map (Figure 3),
topographic landscape map (Figure 4), fault distribution map (Figure 5), fault density
map (Figure 6) rock hardness map (Figure 7) of the experimental area.
Landscape map (Figure 1)
CUI WEI-HONG , JIANG YANG-MING , YU.N. GOLUBCHIKOV,
K.K. RAKHIMOV, A.D. SOBYANIN, V.S. TIKUNOV
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Elevation map (Figure 2)
Gradient map (Figure 3)
Topographic landscape map (Figure 4)
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Fault distribution map (Figure 5)
Fault density map (Figure 6)
Rock hardness map (Figure 7)
CUI WEI-HONG , JIANG YANG-MING , YU.N. GOLUBCHIKOV,
K.K. RAKHIMOV, A.D. SOBYANIN, V.S. TIKUNOV
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Landscape index table
Patch density
Index:
PD
Fragmentation
index:
FN
Diversity
index:
H
Dominance
index:
D
Evenness
index:
E
Landscape
0.19
0.086
3.458
0.457
0.764
Terrain Landscape
0.14
0.075
2.879
0.413
0.325
Fault Landscape
0.004
0.0073
1.435
0.547
0.852
Rock landscapes
0.6
0.054
1.612
0.986
0.687
New Construction
Landscape
0.09
0.011
1.231
0.853
0.648
Disasters level map
Conclusion
Environmental monitoring and early-warning of economic belt along the Silk
Road is strategic and urgency. This project requires the joint efforts and multidisciplinary
research by scientists in few countries. we suggest the government add the project to
two government’s cooperation program. our research is preliminary and focused on
disaster analysis and prediction in corridor region. This can be a reference for future
research of Silk Road sustainable development.
The Project of the Indo-Siberian Continental Railway (ISCR) can include sev-
eral roads from the emerging Eurasian Union to India, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The vectors of the Eurasian railway routes of the 21st century terminate at the follow-
ing points in three countries: Chabahar Port in Iran (on the border between Iran and
Pakistan in the Arabian Sea), and Bandar-Abbas Port (in the Persian Gulf).
For Pakistan the railway vector from the Eurasian Union and China terminates
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at Gwadar Port (in the Arabian Sea) that is being constructed with the participation of
China. For India, the vectors are different: the railway vector from Russia includes the
central areas of India, and the capital city of New-Delhi; the sea and multimodal vector
includes the ports of Mumbai (formerly known as Bombay), Chennai (formerly known
as Madras), Visakhapatnam, and Jawaharlal Nehru Port. These ports are envisioned
as the terminals for the International Transcontinental North-South Corridor (North-
South ITC) from the Baltic Region to India. It can start directly from Trans- Sib and
from its branches toward the north, and from the ports in the white and Barents Seas.
The Indo-Siberian Road is the endeavor of the first decades of the 21st century,
but it seems likely that this project must start with one railway and with one concrete
motor road. It is the Chui-Fergana road which will connect via a single route the Si-
berian regions of Russia and Kazakhstan with the Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek railways.
The road will connect the Chui and Fergana valleys to become an organic continuation
of the railways of Kazakhstan. It will reach the railway network of Uzbekistan thereby
ensuring the construction of the Central Asian railway ring. This will contribute to
easing the strained transport situation existing between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, be-
cause the Fergana Valley can then be accessed by alternative railway. The construc-
tion of the Chui-Fergana railway and its further ramification to the major deposits of
mineral resources and to large hydroelectric power stations will enhance dramatically
their investment attractiveness. Exploitation of mineral resources can then be accessed
by Russia and Kazakhstan. The connection of the north and south of Kyrgyzstan will
be an important stride forward in strengthening the region’s geopolitical security.
The tentative cost of the railway will vary from 1.5 to 5 billion US dollars, de-
pending on the selected route. The startup project must be initiated by Russia and Ka-
zakhstan, with direct participation of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. only after starting the
construction of the meridional road can the question be raised concerning the attrac-
tion of major states, such as China, Pakistan and Iran as well as the European Union,
Japan and the USA which, within the framework of the International Commission of
UN ESCATo, support all such transcontinental transport and infrastructure projects.
when considering the long-range strategy of development of Central Asia, it is
necessary already now to proceed from the emergence of the Indo-Siberian will remain
on paper only. However, the interests of Russia as the Eurasian power, are geared not
only toward the west, East and North but also, of course, toward the South. In this
context, the significance of the Central Asian region is enhanced for Russia. In order
to attract appreciable investment in this region, it is necessary to have a fundamentally
different investment project with a different scope of activity.
The task of constructing the railway from Russia to India was formulated as
early as the 1880s. The route was planned through the Fergana Valley, today’s Kyrgyz
osh, and the Pamir mountains which are in Tajikistan and in Afghanistan at present,
CUI WEI-HONG , JIANG YANG-MING , YU.N. GOLUBCHIKOV,
K.K. RAKHIMOV, A.D. SOBYANIN, V.S. TIKUNOV
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and through today’s disputable area in Pakistan. «The idea of the great railway route
which would connect Europe with India, is as old as the history of railway construction
itself in general», remarks the orientalist M.L. Pavlovich [5] and makes a reference
to a brochure written by Pereira in 1830, containing the project of construction of the
railway to India.
The year 1874 saw the publication of the plan construct the Indo-Volga Railway
from Saratov to India. The originator of the project Stepan Baranovskii wrote: «The
Indo-Volga Railway will have a tremendous influence upon the whole of Russia, by
exalting and ennobling its trade significance. For our trade relations with the East Indies,
we have been using the mediation of England and Holland; then, on the contrary, Great
Britain and the Netherlands, with their possessions washed by the Indian ocean, will
be trading through the mediation of Russia – using the straightest, nearest, speediest
and safest route by railway through Saratov on the Volga and Attoka on the Indus»
[6].
The first thing done by the Russian Empire in Middle Asia was to build the
railway to the Fergana Valley. The second thing done by Soviet Power thereafter was
to complete the Turkestan-Siberian Railway (commonly abbreviated as the Turk-Sib).
And these routes were indeed heading for the Indian ocean. At that period, however,
the state border of the USSR running along the Amu Darya actually blocked the
transcontinental meridional projects and the ancient trade routes.
To date, because of high speeds and destruction of boundaries, the map of
Central Asia has become more compact. Everything on it came closer together. Much
nearer is now the Indian ocean. It became closer to Central Asia than the Baltic Sea,
albeit quite the reverse has been true over the last 150 years. The populated part of the
Pacific Rim became so close that the countries of East Asia declared themselves as a
land bridge between the main economic poles of the planet Earth – EEC (European
Economic Community) and APR (Asia- Pacific Region). Siberia must take advantage
of its favorable geostrategic location.
ACKNowLEDGMENTS
This work was done with financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic
Research (projects 12-06-00310, 13-05-12011 and 14-07-00920).
REFERENCES
1. Shcherbanin yu.A., The Foundations of Logistics, Moscow; Unity-Dana, 2007 (in
Russ).
2. Shustov A.V., There Will Be More Blood in Central Asia Than in Egypt, Postsovet,
Blog Central Asia, 2011, http&//www.postsovet.ru/blog/asia/67890.html (in Russ).
3. Korolev S.V., We Will Feed Asia, Chestnoe slovo, November 11, 2009 (in Russ).
4. Goncharenko S.S., The Strategy of Russia 21st Century: Transport, Economy,
Integration, Security, Proc. Intern. Scient. Pract. Conf. on Eurasian Space: Priorities of
NATURAL SCIENCES AND MEDICINE
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Socioeconomic Development, May 12, 2011, Moscow, Moscow: Izd. tsentr EAOI, 2011, vol. 1,
200-209 (in Russ).
5. Pavlovich M.P., Imperialism and Struggle for Great Future Railway and Sea Routes,
Concerning the Question of the Reasons Behind the World War, 4th Edition, Leningrad: Gos.
izd-vo, 1925 (in Russ).
6. Baranovskii St., Indo-Volga Railroad, Niva, no. 34, 536-539
http:zerrspiegel.orientphil.uni-halle.de/i53.html
http://www.ruzgd.ru/indiya_volga (in Russ).
УДК 616.99. 576.895.121.56. 599.73
МУНиР а.а. ал-Фатлави
Белорусский государственный университет, г. Минск, Беларусь
ПАРАБРОНЕМАТОЗНАЯ ИНВАЗИЯ У ВЕРБЛЮДОВ В ИРАКЕ
Выявлена встречаемость и динамика распространения парабронематоза у верблю-
дов в различных провинциях Ирака. Установлена высокая (62,96%) инвазированность
верблюдов данной нематодой в Ираке. В провинции Дивания зараженность составила
42,65%, в провинции Наджаф отмечена более высокая инвазированность верблюдов, ко-
торая составила 77,65%. Динамика встречаемости парабронематоза в провинциях раз-
лична: с сентября по ноябрь в Дивании она держалась в пределах до 40,6% и в декабре
выросла до 66,67%. В провинции Наджаф с сентября по декабрь держится на уровне от
66,67% до 88,24%, составляя в среднем 77,65%.
Ключевые слова: парабронема, верблюд, Ирак, динамика, распространенность.
ИРАКТАҒЫ ТҮЙЕЛЕРДіҢ ПАРАБРОНЕМАТОЗДЫ ИНВАЗИЯСЫ
Ирактың әртүрлі провинцияларында түйе парабронематозының кездесуі мен
таралу динамикасы айқындалды. Иракта аталған нематоданың (құрттардың) түйе-
лерге таралуы жоғары (62,96%). Дивания провинциясында – 42,65%, Наджаф
провинциясында түйелердің ауруы жоғары (77,65%) екені белгіленді. Провинцияларда-
ғы парабронематоздың кездесу динамикасы әрқилы: қыркүйек пен қараша аралығында
Диванияда 40,6%-ға дейін көрсетсе, желтоқсанда 66,67%-ға дейін өсті. Наджаф
провинциясында қыркүйек пен желтоқсан аралығында 66,67% -дан 88,24%- ға дейін,
орта есеппен 77,65%-ды құрады.
түйін сөздер: парабронема, түйе, Ирак, динамика, таралуы.
PARABRoNEMA ToSISoF CAMELSIN IRAK
The occurrence and prevalence dynamics of Parabronematosis in the camels’ organism
in different provinces of Iraq is identified. A high invasiveness (62.96%) of camels by this
nematode in Iraq is determined. In the province of Diwaniyah infestation level was 42,65%, in
the province of Najaf a higher infestation level of camels is detected, which is equal 77,65%.
Dynamics of Parabronematosis occurrence in provinces is different: from September to No-
vember in Diwaniyah it held up within 40,6% and in December it rose to 66,67%. In Najaf
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