Азаматтық қоғамның рухани өзін-өзі анықтаудың тарихи жолдары

Strategic decision-making in the chaos-era  
Серия «История. Философия». № 3(75)/2014 
133 
UDC 327.8=20 
V.Prorok¹,  I.Švihlíková² 
¹ The University of Finance and Administration, Prague, Czech Republic; 
² University College of International and Public Relations, Prague, Czech Republic 
(Е-mail: VProrok@seznam.cz)
 
Strategic decision-making in the chaos-era 
The society meets many challenges in the form of interlinked and complicated problems. Experts using dif-
ferent methodological schools and of various ideological or religious directions try to find solutions to them. 
One of possible options is the systemic approach and its latest elaboration — the chaos theory, which works 
with non-linear systems, one of which is society. This article proposes to make strategic decisions in globali-
zation era one possible alternative — the theory of Kondratieff cycles, which fits into the theory of chaos and 
allows authors to analyze specific events in the past 50 years and predict the possible risks of future develop-
ment. 
Key words: Methodology, Systems approach, Chaos Theory, Kondratiev‘s cycles, Political control, Globali-
zation. 
 
The new millennium is characterized by increase in chaos. We can observe that the source of problems 
lying not only in bipolarity and the rivalry between the West and East. Many problems not only persist, but 
also deepen. The rise in entropy demands a deeper look into the essence of the socio-economic system we 
live in. To solve partial problems without without a conception of their place in the society complex may 
lead not only to wasting of resources, but in some cases even to a worsening situation. It can be either be-
cause we do not solve important problems for the stability of the society, or because we cause instability di-
rectly, although unwillingly, because of side-effects of by chaining effects. 
Current political science works with an array of methodological approaches. To traditional ones belong: 
normative-ontological approach, empiric-analytical approach, critic-dialectical approach, phenomenological-
existential approaches. These approaches are historically connected to certain types of ideologies. Ideologies 
persist, despite that in science sometimes it is claimed they are not only imprecise grasp of reality, but also 
they lead, due to their heterogeneity to escalation of social conflicts. To a surprise of some scholars also reli-
gious doctrines gain active role in policy making
*
. The heterogeneity of ideologies reflects itself in the plu-
rality of scientific methodologies. Conservatism, which includes also religious concepts, prefers mostly nor-
mative-ontological approach, liberals are in favour of the empiric-analytical approach that prevails today, the 
radical left draws from the critic-dialectical approach, the phenomenological-existential approach is not 
widely used in politics, however was applied by Czech dissent. Ideology creates a value-framework for re-
flecting the social-political reality and predestines the choice of used methodology, e.g. the scientific para-
digm (the term apparatus and accepted theories and methods), which will be applied. 
Besides the above mentioned methodologies, the systemic approach has been applied by reflecting the 
social reality since the 50´s of the 20
th
 century. The systemic approach draws from the concepts of Aristotle 
and follows on the partial application of C.von Linné, G.W.F.Hegel, K.Marx. C.von Clausewitz, 
L.von Bartalanfy and others. The purposeful usage of systemic approach in this period cannot be regarded a 
coincidence, as it was an answer to a long-emerging social demand. The increase in social contradictions in 
the era of monopoly-capitalism emergence together with the destruction of social systems in the period of the 
First World War bolstered the development of sociology, psychology and political science. The economic 
depression of the 30´s and the World War 2 worsened the social problems further. It was proven that arbitrar-
iness and insufficiently based decision-making that has its place in politics, are too hazardous in the current 
state of complexity of inner and outer political relations. The need of further rationalization, more effective 
regulation and control of social processes arose. 
The systemic approach is not a completed methodology. The improvement of systemic approach was 
connected with its application in particular spheres of human activity and with evaluation and generalization 
of this application’s results. In fifty years of its existence, the systemic approach developed in many direc-
tions that gradually get closer to each other, or rather enrich one another: 
                                                      
*
 The religious doctrines fulfilled historically the same functions like modern political ideologies. Therefore, they can be re-
garded a different form of political ideology in a broad sense.  

V.Prorok,  I.Š
134 
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Strategic decision-making in the chaos-era  
Серия «История. Философия». № 3(75)/2014 
135 
Both the chaos theory and the OODA method reflect the society as a dynamic systems, whose devel-
opment is difficult to predict and therefore it is important to concentrate on gaining a current advantage. 
There is a problem that the short-term advantage can turn in a middle-term and the more in the long-term 
into a Pyrrhic victory. The question is if it is possible to form a development of society as of a non-linear 
system in a middle-term and the more in long-term horizon. 
One of the alternative theories that enables us to analyze the dynamics of a long-term economic devel-
opment and its interconnection to social and political development is the theory of Kondratieff cycles
*
, or the 
long waves theory (supercycle, K-wave). The Kondratieff cycle theory is not generally accepted and even 
among its supporters there are differing opinions on the cause of existence of long cycles. The crucial prob-
lem is, if it is possible to prove statistically the periodicity in the development of chosen economic indicators 
or empirically prove the repetition of some phenomena in the period of capitalism existence, e.g. around in 
the period of last 250–300 years. Moreover it is questionable, if it is possible, for such a complex and hetero-
geneous system as the human society is, even if we find out that some phenomena get repeated, to draw a 
conclusion on the necessity or probability of an analogical development in the future, or the more in some 
precise time period. 
The denial of K-waves can be connected with a dominance of ideological world perception, because 
this conception doubts the value paradigm of practically all current ideologies. The denial can also have a 
scientific base — it is impossible to prove the periodicity of repetition of social events. The long wave theory 
claims that every 50 years comes about a crucial qualitative change in society. This conclusion does not cor-
respond to conclusions of existing ideological frameworks. The conservative ideology, or rather its adherents 
believe that the society practically does not change. The notion of changes, the more or radical changes that 
periodically disrupt the stability of order, is unacceptable for them. The liberal ideology and its adherents 
more or less believe in conception of evolutionary developing society, in which it should not come to a peri-
odical repetition of substantial worsening of system functioning parameters. The progress in technology, ed-
ucation and the spreading of culture should ensure the stabilization of civilization’s development. Put another 
way, the civilization should be able to avoid crucial revolutionary changes. The socialist ideology in its radi-
cal Marxist form accepts qualitative changes of social system, nonetheless draws from these changes a con-
clusions of inevitability the termination of capitalism and market economy. K-waves do speak about substan-
tial changes, nevertheless about changes inside the system, which means that the universal crisis of capital-
ism, as described by K.Marx and V.I.Lenin is a cyclical change inside the system. This was shown by the 
development after the Second World War. 
Statistical (empirical) and thus scientific proof of plausibility of K-waves is another problem. A signifi-
cant Anglo-American geographer Brian J.L. Berry [4], whose in his own words always doubted the plausibil-
ity of this conception, stated in his book «Long-wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Be-
haviour» that after he started to deal with the conception, collected rich empirical material, mostly statistical 
data, he found answers to price volatility and economic growth, as well as the timing of turning points in the 
US development. All this has brought him to the adherents of this conception. Berry also states the reasons, 
why, in his opinion, is the conception by many scholars refused. He quotes the consideration of J.S.Goldstein 
from his book: Long cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. The main problem lies in the fact that 
the acceptance of long waves theory is connected with the paradigm change, e.g. needs a new view of history 
and connections economy and politics and presumes to accepts that events impacts go beyond generation 
measures, which exceed the approach of standard instrumental rationality, which is mostly oriented on cur-
rently available result [5]. 
The Kondratieff wave has a form of a sinusoid with two different stages — expansion that persists 
about 25 years and is characterized by higher growth rates (stage A) and decline with lower growth rate 
(stage B). Kondratieff explained the long waves by cyclical movement of prices, inflation and interest rates. 
Besides the volatility of these indicators is the cycle connected to further phenomena, in economy,, in social 
and political sphere. 
 
 
                                                      
*
 Nikolai Kondratieff (1892–1938), Soviet economist, made the problematic of long waves in his work of 1925 famous, alt-
hough he was not the first. His predecessors were Dutchmen – Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, whose works were, howev-
er translated later. Kondratieff had different views on building socialism in the Soviet Union from the official line represented by 
Stalin. Therefore he was sentenced to imprisonment in gulag and at the end executed.  

V.Prorok,  I.Š
136 
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