Threats and Challenges in Central Asia.
The emergence and growth of security threats in Central Asia have been provoked by traditional factors
and features of the independent development of the Central Asian states. Aggravation of the situation
contributed to advancing in Central Asia after the collapse of the USSR economic crisis. In most
countries the difficult economic situation continues to this day.
Without pretending to study all the threats and challenges that have a destabilizing influence on the
Central Asian region, to dwell on the basic: drug trafficking, religious extremism, and energy security.
A relatively new challenge and can be considered a threat to the political destabilization of the region as
a result of the change of the governing elites.
The problem of smuggling and drug trafficking continues to be a major issue on the agenda, not only in
front of the Central Asian countries and their neighbors, but also in the entire international community.
Since the collapse of the USSR the drug trade has a major impact on the socio-economic development
of Central Asia. This is due, primarily, to the close proximity of Central Asia to the largest centers of
production and distribution of drugs - Afghanistan.
The difficult economic situation of the majority of the population of the Central Asian countries, together
with the obvious financial attractiveness of smuggling and drug trafficking, is the involvement in the
drug industry's growing number of people in the region. As a result, the drug business has already gone
beyond the territory of Afghanistan and Central Asia, and thrives on a global scale. Has reached a
dangerous level the number of drug addicts in Russia, increasing distribution receives addiction and
Central Asia, where previously this phenomenon is hardly observed. In addition, the economy of Central
Asian states suffers from drug trafficking . Shadow income distribution is a serious obstacle to the
establishment and functioning of a competitive economic system.
Ultimately, the drug business is interested in maintaining political and social instability in the region
and, therefore, is a real threat to security in the broadest sense of the word.
No less destabilizing effect on the preservation of security in the region has the threat of Islamic
extremism. The emergence of regional Islamic extremist forces is primarily due to the peculiarities of
modern development of Central Asian societies, the presence in the development of a large number of
internal contradictions. External support from international Islamic organizations, aimed at financial
support content militant bases and export are often alien to the ideology of Central Asia, is also
important, but plays a secondary role.
The validity of the existence of extremist organizations is partly due to the use of methods of social
rhetoric and criticism of the "unjust power," receiving support among disaffected with low standard of
living people. "Epicenter" of concentration of conflict in the region is the Ferghana Valley, which unites
several areas of the revolutionary activity of the Central Asian states. The danger posed by the activities
of extremists in the Ferghana Valley, fully demonstrated the Andijan events of 2005. Successful attempt
to establish power in the valley could be on a plan of Islamists lead to establishment of an Islamic
influence on Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which would be a significant step towards creating
a global Caliphate. Plans for Islamic extremists and hopeless utopian, which is confirmed by numerous
examples of attempts to build an Islamic state in modern times, such as the collapse of the Taliban
regime in Afghanistan and defeat the Islamists in Somalia in 2006.
229
The problem of energy security is associated with the desire of the Central Asian countries whose energy
sector prevails over the others, to minimize the risks in the market of hydrocarbons, to create the most
effective system of cooperation in the field of energy and to protect its resources from external attacks.
This problem is particularly relevant if we remember the struggle that so actively underway in the
modern world for energy. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as other
countries in the region are interested in maintaining stability in the region and the formation of a security
system in which can fully realize their energy projects.
A relatively new challenge for the region is the threat of destabilization in the case of change of power
in the politically fragile states in Central Asia. This threat was recognized after the wave of "color
revolutions" that swept across the former Soviet space. As well as other security issues in Central Asia,
the threat of political destabilization is based on the complex socio-economic situation in the country,
the presence of a large number of public internal contradictions. Political modernization of the country,
the formation of viable political institutions and the establishment of mechanisms of succession of power
- all this could be the solution to the current problems, help to strengthen the foundations of security in
Central Asia.
Security strategy in Central Asia.
Projects of Russia, the USA and China are focused on formation of a security system in Central Asia.
Security issues are central to such organizations operating in the former Soviet Union, as the CIS, CSTO
and SCO. These associations works for Moscow as a mechanism for coordination and cooperation in
implementing collective decisions, and despite the fact that formally these organizations have different
goals, in fact, their functions often overlap. Noteworthy is the fact that management companies are also
similar. It seems that the division of "areas of responsibility" between the CSTO and SCO contributes
towards better address security issues in Central Asia.
Speaking of specific projects in the field of security, developed within organizations, it is worth noting
that they also often duplicated in other formats. For example, in the CIS, there are three safety project
in Central Asia: a unified system of air defense, peacekeeping and anti-terrorist center of the CIS.
Meanwhile, the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure was also created in the SCO and the CSTO general
air defense system. This fact suggests that the functions of the CIS in the sphere of security partially
transferred to other organizations. And, despite the fact that even under the auspices of the CIS projects
will not be curtailed, security issues in Central Asia, apparently, will go to the CSTO and the SCO.
SCO reflects the strategy of security in Central Asia not only Russia but also China. This was the cause
of the internal contradictions that exist in the SCO. Initially, the organization was intended to fight
against the "three evils": separatism, extremism and terrorism. Gradually these problems are no longer
applicable for the majority of the countries of Central Asia. Common to all members of the "Shanghai
Five" is only a problem of religious extremism. However, the organization responds promptly to new
security challenges and demonstrates the willingness to assume responsibility for security in Central
Asia, and for the overall development of the region.
In particular, SCO develops the project of creation of energy club which has to become a security system
component on space of Central Asia.
The organization is making efforts to fight against drug trafficking and drug smuggling from
Afghanistan. However solution of so large-scale problem hardly possibly by efforts of one organization.
230
Shanghai organization, in general achieves a certain achievements in the field of safety in the region. At
this stage she needs to become stronger, resolve internal contradictions and to rely not on expansion, but
integration. Acceptance in SCO of new members , is only capable to shake already fragile balance of
forces of the organizations and to lead to destabilization of a situation in the Central Asian region with
all the ensuing consequences.
Unlike SCO connecting economic, and military-political functions, the CSTO is a peculiar institute of
safety which zone of responsibility includes both traditional, and new threats and calls in Central Asia.
Besides the solution of boundary problems and prevention of foreign policy threat, the CSTO solves
such major problems as fight against a drug traffic for what annually conducts special operation
"Channel".
The USA for which Central Asia is strategically important region, are also interested in preservation of
stability in its territory. Placement of military forces of NATO in the Central Asian states after
September 11, 2001 became strategy of safety of the USA in Central Asia. And though Central Asia is
the center of crossing of geopolitical interests of the USA, Russia and China, these states understand
danger of destabilization of a situation in the region and, let separately from each other, but take steps
to the solution of problems of safety in Central Asia.
Thus, regional security - a condition in which for the object of regional security (the Central Asian states)
all the conditions of protection and favorable development are created, built mechanisms to minimize
risks to prevent or eliminate phenomena, processes or elements of the negative impact. During the
implementation and realization of security we can not and should not talk about the complete elimination
of all forms of absolute risks, dangers and threats to regional security. This is most likely an impossible
task. However minimization of many existing risks which are on the verge of transformation into more
destructive form is feasible.
References:
Spechler, C. Martin (2000), Regional Cooperation in Central Asia: Promises and More promises,
The Fletcher Journal of Development Studies,
Boland, Julie, (2011) Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A lost Decade A
Partner for the U.S. Foreign Policy at Brookings
УДК 32:001.12/18
HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON
Sidar Sonmez
University of Suleyman Demirel University
According to USA Hezbollah is “the most dangerous terrorist group ın the World.” In the list of
USA terror organization Hezbollah stand at the top of the list. European Union also consider Hezbollah
a global terrorist threat to Middle east stability.
Lebanon is so specific a country for Middle East . Lebanon contain whole caos,conflict,
multicultural and multi-ethnical structures of Middle east. The Lebanon is “Junior Middle East of
Middle East “
There is 18 difference sects ın side of country and since 1943 National Pact declared the political
system of state established ın this multi ethnical context. Acoording to this pact President shall be
231
Maronite, prime minester shall be Sunni leader, head of parliament shall be Shia. This politic structure
was main point of Civil War in Lebanon
In this pact two point was so important first one is “Population “ and second one is “ ethnicty.”
About 30 years Lebanon had good situation inside of country but when population was start to change
the problem also start. Because Druze ans Shia populations was on rise. Because of this reason they
wanted more rights ın politiccal system. But in Lebanon since 4th century there is a Christian church
and Christian peoples. The name of this peoples is “Maronite”. Arab peoples says they ara arabic
christian but most of Maronites doesnt accept it. They says: “ We are part of Civilization of Phoenician”
.
At different periods of its history, Lebanon has come under the domination of foreign rulers,
including Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, Romans, and Ottomans. Since late history
Maronites had some concession ın Lebanon. For example under Ottomon Empire , they were otonom
etnicity. in this case they feel themselfs “real owner of Lebanon”. The population of them is about
900.000 but in the others side Shia and Sunnih Muslim also wants more duty and portıon ın country.
But the biggest community ın Lebanon was Shia and its still same. They are constitute 34%
population of Lebanon. The process about Hezbollah came out is 1975-1989 with Lebanon Civil War.
The biggest reason of this war was because of : Palestinian refugees and competition within ethnical
groups and structure of Political system.
The biggest Shia state is “Islamic State of Iran .“ Iran had a revolution in 1979. After revolution
Velayet-ul Fakih started to product and support all shia ın middle east in this case Lebanon was so
important a country for this movement. Iran and Syria were support shia movements ın Lebanon Civil
war ın the beginning the organization was “Shia Amal “but it was unsuccesful after this time Hezbollah
established by support of those countries and Hezbollah became so specific and biggest organization ın
Lebanon and Middle East.
A-What is Hezbollah's role in Lebanese politics?
With considerable from Iran and Syria, Hezbollah preserves an large security meterials, social
services network and political organization in Lebanon.
The political system of Lebanon is based on two documents; those documents are: the first one is
1943 National pact and second one is 1989 Ta’if Charter. Those documents are fundamental basis of
Political system in Lebanon.
Lebanon's political system which is based on the principle of political confessionalism can never
achieve justice or realize right and peace. Perhaps one of the most important reasons of the civil war that
broke out in 1975 lies within the confessional tendency that had been established by the political system.
1
By 1943 National Pact the president of Lebanon Maronite, Prime minester Sunni, Head of
Parliament Shia and according to this pact member of parliament agreed to be share with 6/5 rate
Christians and Muslims.
2
This structure wasnt succesful and after Civil war it was change. According to Ta’if charter ın the
new system rate of member between Muslims and Christian must be 5/5 rate.
The Republic of Lebanon is a Parliamentary democracy whose independence was declared in 1943.
The State is headed by the President of the Republic who is the head of state and symbol of the nation's
unity. He strives to ensure respect for the Constitution and safeguarding Lebanon's independence and
territorial integrity. He is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
3
The parliament of Lebanon has 128 members and structure of members is;
Seat of Christians is 64; distribution of Christian members are ; 34 Maronite, 14 Greek Orthodox, 8
Greek Catholic, 5 Armenian Orthodox, , 1 Armenian Catholic, 1 Anglican, 1 small minorities.
Seat of Muslims is 64; distribution of Muslim members are ; 27 Sunni , 27 Shia, 8 Druze, 2 Nusayri.
4
232
The confessionalist political system of Lebanon established for multi-sects sctuctural system.
There is 18 Sects in Lebanon and each sect only support their members and parliamentarians. Therefore
its so hard to stabil system in Lebanon could be happen. For example; Maronites peoples only getting
marry with Maronites, and the others etnicity aswell. And nobody support the other one . Each one is
“potential enemy” fort he other one .
A-
Name of Hezbollah And İdeolgy-Aim of Hezbollah
The inspiration for name of Hezbollah is coming from Surah Maide 55-56 ın Holy Quran,ın thıs part
of Quran says:
Maide 55:”Your guide is only Allah, His Messenger, and the believers; those who establish the prayer,
pay their obligatory charity, and bow down (in worship).”
Maide 56 : “Whosoever takes Allah for a guide, His Messenger, and the believers the party of Allah is
the victor.”
5
The name of Hezbollah mean ; “The party of Allah” but ın some translate we can see “supporter of
Allah” or “ the soldiers of Allah “.
The name of Hezbollah given by Molla Muhammed Gaffari. Gaffari established Hezbollah ın 1973 on
Qum(city of Iran). In the begging this movement was against Shah in Iran .
Gaffari was against:” Western institutions, Democracy and multi-parties system.”
Gaffari says: “ There is only a party and the name of this party is The Party Of Allah ( hezbollah).”
This words of Gaffari became so famous in Iran’s Shias.
6
During this time ın Lebanon also Shia’s established an organisation ın 1974. The name of this
organization was AMAL.Shia Amal organization established by Molla İbrahim Sadr.
By 1979 Islamic Revoulation ın Iran, Shia organizations in Middle East became more powerfull and
more effective in this zone. Hasan Nasrallah was representive of Amal ın Bekaa valley( Lebanon ).
According to Nasrallah Amal had to be more radical. Because ın this time already Lebanon was ın Civil
War andı n 1978 Israil occupied Lebanon.
After this process 500 person whom was with Nasrallah and 3000 Revolutionary Guards were send by
Ayatollah Khomeini participatied to Hezbollah.
According to "The Hizbollah Program" made in the 1980s, the principles of its ideology are: “a-To
expel Americans, the French and their allies definitely from Lebanon, putting an end to any colonialist
entity on our land.
b-To submit the phalanges to a just power and bring them all to justice for the crimes they have
perpetrated against Muslims and Christians.
c- To permit all the sons of our people to determine their future and to choose in all the liberty the form
of government their desire. We call upon all of them to pick the option of Islamic government which,
alone, is capable of guaranteeing justice and liberty for all. Only an Islamic regime can stop any future
tentative attempts of imperialistic infiltration onto our country.”
7
the aim of Hezbollah was fear all western countries in Lebaon and establish one of İslamic Goverment.
İn this case biggest enemies were USA and Israil for Hezbollah. According to Hezbollah for could
establish Equal and Justice in Lebanon those countries had to fear.
By Hezbollah Program, Hezbollah declared this aim like this :
“The US has tried, through its local agents, to persuade the people that those who crushed their
arrogance in Lebanon and frustrated their conspiracy against the oppressed (mustad'afin) were nothing
but a bunch of fanatic terrorists whose sole aim is to dynamite bars and destroy slot machines. Such
suggestions cannot and will not mislead our umma, for the whole world knows that whoever wishes to
oppose the US, that arrogant superpower, cannot indulge in marginal acts which may make it deviate
233
from its major objective. We combat abomination and we shall tear out its very roots, its primary roots,
which are the US. All attempts made to drive us into marginal actions will fail, especially as our
determination to fight the US is solid.”
8
By this program Hezbollah declared their idea about Christian peoples too , in the program they
declared:
“If you, Christians, cannot tolerate that Muslims share with you certain domains of government, Allah
has also made it intolerable for Muslims to participate in an unjust regime, unjust for you and for us, in
a regime which is not predicated upon the prescriptions (ahkam) of religion and upon the basis of the
Law (the Shari’a) as laid down by Muhammad, the Seal of the Prophets. If you search for justice, who
is more just than Allah? It is He who sent down from the sky the message of Islam through his successive
prophets in order that they judge the people and give everyone his rights. If you were deceived and
misled into believing that we anticipate vengeance against you - your fears are unjustified. For those of
you who are peaceful, continue to live in our midst without anybody even thinking to trouble you.”
9
Status of Hezbollah ın Lebanese Civil War(1975-1989)
Hezbollah established during Lebanon's civil war (1975–1990) in the aftermath of Israel's invasion in
1982 and subsequent occupation. Israel intended to eject Palestinian refugee and militans in southern
Lebanon.
By end of 1967 Arab-Israil war the Palestinian peoples start to escape from their country. With those
refugeen, PLO members also were changing place. Those PLO militans had weapons with them. In the
beginning they were in Jordan, but members of PLO tried to kill king of Jordan, therefore King Hussein
started to fear Palestinians from Jordan. This event known with name of Black September.
After Jordan, PLO members start to inhabit in Lebanon but Maronites peoples were lead of country
and they doesnt accept Palestinian refugee, because PLO militans had weapons and this reason was
unacceptable for Maronites. They thought its be risk for Lebanon.
Shia Amal organization was fighting by name of Shia ın Lebanon. And supporters of Hezbollah also
were fighting with Amal. But when Amal start to fight with Palestinian refugees, Hezbollah start to be
against Amal;
During Civil War Hezbollah broke off relations with Amal, Because Amal was in clash with
Palastinian refugee in Lebanon. After this event , during 1988-89 Hezbollah and Amal started to war
and Hezbollah got victory agains Amal with this war.
In 1982 Israel invaded Lebanon to evict the Palestine Liberation Organization(PLO). In this time
Hezbollah became an armed organization to expel the Israelis. In the beginning of Civil War Hezbollah
did some important suicide attacks; for example;
Tyre truck bombings
and the
1983 Beirut barracks
bombing
,
1983–1984: 5 acts against the US and France, including these specific acts:
April 18, 1983:
U.S. embassy bombing in Beirut
.
October 23, 1983:
Beirut barracks bombing
, targeting
French
soldiers and
United States Marines
;
responsibility for this is disputed (see
1983 Beirut barracks bombing
).
1982–1985: 11 acts against Israel.
1985–1986: 20 acts against Israel and the
South Lebanon Army
.
10
The civil war of Lebanon made Hezbollah more powerfull and given more charisma ın Middle East and
Lebanon. Hezbollah’s intelligence service was become powerfull by support of Iran.For example ın
October 23 1983, Hezbollah send a truck with 5400 kg TNT to Beirut airport and in this attack 241 USA
and 58 Frenc’s soldiers were dead.
By Taif charter civil war was finish in 1989. According to this Charter all militias have to leave
weapons and leave from Beirut. But only Hezbollah didn’t leave weapons. Because Hezbollah was
declare themselves “Single Official Resistance Organization”
234
After Taif Hezbollah started to establish Radio,TV channel and Newspaper. Especcialy during
Hezbollah-Israel war the anthem was played in Radio motived Hezbollah soldiers. And Hezbollah used
those press tolls so effectivly.
After Civil war Hezbollah start to include in Political area.Hezbollah won eight arliamentary seats in
national elections for the first time in 1992.Hezbollah won ten parliamentary seats in the 2009 national
elections.
Hezbollah ın all case of Lebanon become more powerfull. In politics, ın army and ın economy.
Hezbollah started have more roles in Lebanon.
But this situation was disturb Israel, Israel started to attack South Lebanon ın 1993, Hezbollah also
start to give answer to this attacks by Katyusha rockets to North Israel ınhabits.
In 1994 peace negotiation was start to withing Israel and Palestian , But ın 1996 Prime Mİnister ıf
Israel Ishak Rabin was murder by one of Radical jewish. And Shimon Peres Became prime minister of
Israel.Peres started to attack South Lebanon with Air, Land and Sea attacks and 100 persons was dead
ın this attack. UN prepared a report and according to UN Israel was unfair ın this attacks.
In early 2000 Israel start to retreat from Lebanon. Ever since Israel establish ın 1948 this defeat was
first for Israel. After this victory of Hezbollah. Hezbollah got so important prestig ın Middle East.
Within 12
th
June and 14
th
August 2006 the new War was Start between Hezbollah And
Israel,Hezbollah killed 8 Israel’s soldiers and kidnapped 2 Israelian soldiers, and attacks Israel’s land
by Katyusha Rockets, this attacks was deslare Act Of War by Israel government. with this case Israel
again start to attacks Lebanon.
This attacks took a month. In 14
th
August by accordance 1701 resolution of United Nations Security
Council , Israel finished investment in Lebanon and start to retreat.
Hezbollah got 12 seat in General election of Lebanon ın 2009. The party of Hezbollah is Loyalty to the
Resistance(Hezbollah)
The Conclusion
The most important guestion about Hezbollah ; İs Hezbollah a political party or Terror Organization?
After 9/11 the local terror organization became a global threat for each country. But there is no any
mutual decription about what does it mean “Terror.” World is not ın consensus about meaning of terror.
Because struggle of Organization could be benefits for some sides. For example, according to USA and
EU, Hezbollah is a Terror organization but Iran and Syria doesn’t think like that.
Already Hezbollah also doesn’t accept themselves like a terror organization and they call themselves
Liberation Organization, Which is fighting for their country’s independence. Hezbollah’s leader Hasan
Nasrallah said in Agust 2006: “We are not a regular army,” “And we will not fight like a regular army.”
. Hezbollah doesnt accept themselves like a regular organization and their victories against Israel was
support their ideas.
Hezbollah’s millitarist victories effect their Politic status. Those succeds bring “strong ımage” in local
and global publics for Hezbollah. Especially in Lebanon, Hezbollah getting more powerfull in each
case.
The Hezbollah is ever since established became so important an organization between USA,Israel And
Iran,Syrıa relations. Hezbollah is one of key actors between those countries and doing balance between
them.
Hezbollah, especially for Iran’s policy against Israel and USA coming vital an actor for Iran. Already
Hezbollah in road of Iran ideology and they also support Islamıc State ın Lebanon. After Islamıc
Revolution of Iran , Iran always support Hezbollah. And Iran giving weapons, financial support and
intelligence assistance to Hezbollah , In this case Syria have important location for Iran and Hezbollah.
Therefore if Bashar Assad leave from Syria new President probably will be supporter of Western
countries and its can be so important problem for Hezbollah and Iran as well. Because for transportation
stuff and give help Hezbollah Syria must help Iran.
235
A Shia organization Hezbollah, its always a threat for Israel, and ıf we check history , Hezbollah
almost won all war against Israel. Israel doesn’t succesfull against Hezbollah.
Hezbollah became more powerfull in each case of Lebanon, By last election of Lebanon Hezbollah
got 12 parliamenter in Lebanese parliament. By end of 2009 Election’s Hezbollah got Ministry of
Agriculture.
Hezbollah is getting more effective ın politics, economic and millitarist areas. Hezbollah have free
education for students. Hezbollah looks succeed in Lebanon and its look likes its getting more succeed
and more dangerous for Israel and Maronites of Lebanon.
Without Hezbollah’s decides there cannot be stabil a political system . Because Hezbollah is so effective
ın all case. For example there is no President in Lebanon now , because sects of Lebanon couldn’t get
consensus within each other and each sects support their nominates. If Hezbollah and Christians doesn’t
get consensus for Election of President it looks like Lebanon will stay long time without President.
According to me Hezbollah’s is going to be major party in Lebanon and they will take government. As
ı said before there is nothing can be happen without Hezbollah. Therefore Israel disturb with this status
of Hezbollah and Israel and Maronites could start to war against Hezbollah, ıts mean there is can be
happen a new Civil War in Lebanon. Because ıf Israel doesn’t ban Hezbollah, ın the future Hezbollah
going to establish one of Islamıc State ın Lebanon and this exactly going to be end of Israel.
Therefore I hope there everything going to be fine for each peoples who is living in Lebanon. And I
hope not with weapons only with dialogue and with political issues get deal between nations of Lebanon
and nobody will be murder ın this violent. And amazing city Beiurut became “Middle East’s Paris.”
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