Conclusion It is doubtful, but there is a possibility that Israel will strike against nuclear facilities of Iran on its
own, with the aim to destroy or at least delay the program for several years.
The success of attack mission will be estimated by how much program of nuclear enrichment would
be destroyed or the number of year that it would delay Iran from acquiring enough HEU to create nuclear
Iran without doubt will perceive US as a part of conspiracy and would think that it assisted Israel and
gave green light. This means that together with Israel US also would be included to the list of retaliation.
In recent years Arab states became frustrated with US and Western double standard when considering
Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle Eastern Region. According to CSIS experts Arab countries will not
accept any attack on Iran under the disguise that Iran causes and existential threat to Israel, while Israel
possess about 200 to 300 nuclear warheads, and Jericho missile delivery system. In addition Israel is still
occupying Syrian Golan Heights and West Bank.
Regarding Syria, it would not engage in full scale war against Israel, because it knows that its military
is incapable against Israeli military. But Syria could assist to proxy actors like Hamas and Hezbollah to
From consequences of Israeli attack on Iran, we can infer that United States will not allow Israel to
carry out pre-emptive attack on Iran. Because costs of this attack highly overcome benefits and harms US
interests in the region.
REFERENCES 1. Cordesman and Toukhan, CSIS: “Study on Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development
2. Jonathan Marcus, diplomatic correspondent: “Analyses: How Israel might strike an Iran”, BBC
3. David Rodman:“Israel’s National Security Doctrine: an Introductory Overview”
4. CNN world, Fareed Zakira GPS: Zbigniew Brzezinski on Iran and chances of going to war, 2012
5. National Journal - National Security Insiders Poll: “Israel will Attack Iran”, 2012
6. Eddy Wrenen: “U.S. and Israel 'considering joint aerial strike against Iran's nuclear facilities using
bombers and drones”, http://www.dailymail.co.uk
Annotation The paper emphasizes the importance of financial forecasting for Kazakhstan’s oil-sector. Methods
used in financial forecasting are described in the paper, namely in oil-sector. General definition of
financial forecasting is given, and article mentions 3 most relevant forecasting methods: E
smooth, Trend analysis, Regression analysis
Oil sector, Kazakhstan, Forecasting methods
Түйін Бұлар – ең көп қолданылатын болжалдау методтары, олардың әрқайсысының өзінің
артықшылықтары және кемшіліктері бар. Қарастырылған тәсілдердің дәлдігі уақыт аралығына
және қолда бар ақпаратқа байланысты. Түйіндей келгенде тәсілдің тиімділігі оның қолданылу
Резюме Эти методы прогнозирования самые распространенные, каждый из них имеет свои
преимущества и недостатки. Точность описанных методов зависит от диапазона времени и
имеющихся данных. В заключение, эффективность методов связаны с целью пользования.
Özet Bunlar en çok kullanılan tahmin etme yöntemleri, bunların kendine ait avantajları ve dezavantajları
var. Anlatılan yöntemlerin doğruluğu zaman aralığına ve mevcut bilgiye bağlı. Yani yöntemin verimliliği
onu kullanma amacına bağlı.
Financial forecasting methods in oil-sector of Kazakhstan
Oil sector is the most important part of Kazakhstani economy and 21% of GDP is linked with the
activity in this sector. There are many oil-producing companies in Kazakhstan and together they form oil-
sector of a country. Thereby forecasting the financial outcomes of Kazakhstani oil-producing companies,
spotting deteriorating conditions and taking corrective actions have strategic importance for the future
Financial forecasting in oil-sector is the process of estimating of future financial outcomes for a oil
producing firm and preparing for the future using historical data, in addition to external factors such as oil
deman, oil price and oil reserves.
There are 2 types of forecasting approach 1) qualitative (or judgemental) and 2) quantitative.
Qualitative approach is useful in short-term forecasting and based on human judgement rather historical
data. Advantages of qualitative approach include next positions: useful when there is lack of historical
data, can identify systematic change more quickly and interpret them more effectively Disadvantage of
this approach is that it is subjective and some critical issues may be missed. Some of qualitative
approaches are: executive opinions, delphi technique, sales force polling, consumer surveys, pert-derived.
As I am going to use quantitative approach for oil-producing companies, because most of my research
is linked with financial statements. The peculiarity of this approach is linked with using historical datas to
forecast future business performance, in the main this approach is based on mathematical calculations.
Quantitative approaches are: moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend analysis, decomposition of
time series, regression, Markov approach, etc. In this article I am going to cover the most effective and
accurate quantitative methods.
Exponential smoothing is a modified version of moving average technique, difference is that in
moving average technique all historical datas weighted equally, but in exponential smoothing datas are
weighted according to recentness, for instance recent information is given more weight than information in
The formula for exponential smoothing is:
or in words,
= Exponentially smoothed average to be used as the forecast.
= Most recent actual data.
= Most recent smoothed forecast.
= Smoothing constant. The higher the , the higher the weight given to the more recent
Trend analysis is a technique based on using past data to predict future movements. It is similar to
simple regression. This technique is used to see whether a firm’s financial situation is improving or
worsening. Usually analysis is plotted in a graph to provide picture of results. Trend analysis fits trendline
to mathematical equation(linear, exponential, polynomial, etc.) and shows the future by means of this
equation. For instance, the linear trendline equation can be shown as:
Note: Source is Financial Management; Principles and Practice, Authors: Gallagher and Andrew,
Regression analysis is a technique used for estimating relationship between variables. These variables
can be independent and dependent. Based on regression analysis one can understand how the change in
independent variable can influence the fixed variable. Analyzing the relationship between variables the
future business performance of a firm can be forecasted.
To assess the accuracy and reliability of regression results one uses:
1. Correlation coefficient (R) and coefficient of determination(R2)
2. Standard error of the estimate (Se) and prediction confidence interval
3. Standard error of the regression coefficient (Sb) and t-statistic
Note: Source is
Regression Analysis: Modeling and Forecasting, Authors: George C. S. Wang,
Chaman L. Jain, 2003
Summary These are the most common forecasting methods, all these methods have their own advantages and
disadvantages. Methods described in the article are accurate in specific time range and available historical
data. So it depends on which criteria these methods are used, for instance, exponential smoothing is good
at short-term forecasting, trendline is good at long-term forecasting and regression is good at medium-term
1.Handbook of Financial Analysis, Forecasting and Modeling, Authors: Jae K. Shim, Joel G. Siegel,
2.Regression Analysis: Modeling and Forecasting, Authors: George C. S. Wang, Chaman L. Jain,
3.Financial Management; Principles and Practice, Authors: Gallagher and Andrew, 2007
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POLICY OF REGULATION OF THE LABOR MARKET, EMPLOYMENT AND MIGRATION DURING TRANSITIVE TIME IN KAZAKHSTAN Bahar Kıpkıp, Master Student Scientific Supervisor Prof. Dr. Bolat Tatibekov Suleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Economics Özet Bu makale başlica kanun ve kurallari ile göç ve işçi konularını göstermenktedir.Makaledeki
avantajlardan biri de yazarın kronolojik olarak sadece kanunları değil aynı zamanda pozitif ve negatif
yönlerinide göstermiştir. Резюме
Статья раскрывает законодательные и правовые вопросы занятости и миграции в Республике Казахстан. Достоинством статьи является то, что автор раскрывает их не только в хронологическом
порядке, но выделяет их положительные и отрицательные стороны
Annotation The article describes the main laws and rules which link with migration and employment issues. One
of advantage of the paper that the author describes the legislation not only in chronological order but also
she describes their positive and negative sides/.
Түйін Қазіргі уақыт еңбек нарығына жұмыс күшінің ішкі резервін тартудың, еңбек ресурстарының
сапасы мен экономикалық белсенділігін арттырудың жаңа тәсілдерін әзірлеуді және іске асыруды
Keywords: Labor law employment and labor migration.
Many normative-legal acts had and have the mediate connection with regulation of labor market and
employment of human resources and have some influence on them in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It’s
need to notice here such legislative acts like The Employment Law in Kazakhstan, The Labor Law in
Kazakhstan, The Labor Protection Law, The Team Agreement Law, The Team Discussions and Job
Actions Law etc. The same time The Employment Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan has more concrete
purposeful influence on the regulation of labor market and employment.
The legislation concerning the regulation of labor market and employment and particularly The
Employment Law changed twice during the period of transition in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The
regulation of employment realized on the base of The Employment Law of the 15
of December in the
Republic of Kazakhstan till 1999. This Law worked out and accepted on the initial step of market
reformation in the frame of former USSR copied the similar legislative acts operating in other soviet
We should underline that the policy conducting in the sphere of employment began to break down on
passive and active during the transition to the market relations. The active policy of employment is the
totality of legal, organizational and economical measures conducting by the state with the aim of decrease
of unemployment level. Its behavior was connected with measures about training, retraining and
professional development of persons, who find the job, organization of new work places with the help of
public works system, precaution of workers dismissal and keeping of work places, active search and
selection of work places.
The passive policy conducted in the sphere of benefit payoff to unemployed citizens and giving them
the simplest services in selection of work place with the help of employment service.
In compliance with legislation act “The Employment Law” of the 15
of December in 1990 the
financial bulwark of active and passive policy of employment, what means different programs of
employment, social security of unemployment citizens must realized with the help of special financial-
credit agency – “The State Fund of Assistance to Employment in the Republic of Kazakhstan”. Its main
activity was regulated by this law and appropriate attitude about “The State Fund of Assistance to
“The Employment Law” of the 15
of December in 1990 was worked out and accepted by the
Supreme Council of Kazakh SSR in the beginning of market reforms before the economical breakdown
which was in republic after the passage of the Law. As further practice showed many articles of the Law
couldn’t be realize because of big social-economic reformations appeared after the passage of the Law.
The reorganization of many ruling subjects, the bankruptcy of corporations and organizations and
economical breakdown connected with the economy transformation in whole gave rise to deficiency of
financial benefit and depositions for benefit payoff, conducting of different public works, training and
retraining of workers in “The State Fund of Assistance to Employment”.
All of these facts and also the appearance of new trends on the labor market and in the sphere of
employment (increase of unemployment, its currency etc.) were the reasonable facts for the passage of the
new legislative act “The Employment Law” on the 30
of December in 1998.
One of the most important change in the employment and unemployment regulation was financing of
employment programs (public works, professional training and retraining of unemployment, their
employment assistance, foundation and support of informational data base of the employment questions,
unemployment benefit) and began to realize from the state budget.
The government of the Republic of Kazakhstan revoked “The State Fund of Assistance to
Employment”, revision commission and employment centers on the 29
of January in 1999.
The employment services were reformed into municipal state corporations.
The financing of different measures of employment assistance, social protection of unemployment
were seriously reformed. For example, unemployment benefits were at the rate of about 3,5 size of
monthly rated index independently from age, previous experience etc.
The employment benefits began to charge with getting status “unemployment”, with previous
experience not less then 12 calendar weeks and taking part in public works and training. The benefit
during the professional training period is 3 size of monthly rated index.
The financing of public works based on the principles of temporal state offer with time-limit not a
longer time than 6 months. The unemployed citizens who officially recorded in employment body have
preference right to take part in public works.
“The Employment Law” on the 30
of December in 1998 has limited the abilities to receive
unemployment status, size and time for getting unemployment benefit. After the passage of the Law, the
population of the country began to find the job by themselves.
On the 23d of January in 2001 the third new legislative act “The Employment Law” was accepted in
the Republic of Kazakhstan. There weren’t such main definitions like worker and employee, vacant office,
temporary employment, screw, monthly rated index. The tangible compensation replaced by the state
social support for poor citizens in compliance with the Law.
One of the first legislative act connecting with migration problems was “The Immigration Law”
accepted by the Supreme Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the 26nd of June in 1992. In
compliance with this legislation act it’s need to appeal high quality specialists from the foreign countries
for the training domestic people in regulation of labor immigration.
The ministries, departments, corporations, offices and organizations couldn’t invite and admit citizens
of other countries which hadn’t visa. The foreigner arriving to the Republic as labor immigrant (not for the
citizenship change) must have permanent residence outside the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The migration policy was against the background of significant social and economical reforms and
also reformation of planned economy into market one. The principal transformation of economy,
destruction of integrated economic complex of former USSR were important reasons of emigration
dominance under immigration. The new legislation act “The Migration Law” was accepted on the 13
December in 1997 for decrease of emigration negative influence on decrease of population and increase of
immigrants in the Republic.
This new legislative act had more specific migration questions in the Republic of Kazakhstan and
included international legal acts in this sphere. This act began to regulate not only immigration questions
but also the question about emigration.
Nowadays the regulation of labor migration in the Republic of Kazakhstan realize on the base of “The
Migration Law” on the 13
of December in 1997 and “The Employment Law” on the 23d of January in
2001. The citizens of the Republic of Kazakhstan apart from the persons in the army have the right on
labor activity abroad.
The particularity of regulation of labor migration is intermediate help its citizens abroad in
employment assistance and inviting of foreign labor force to the Republic of Kazakhstan. This help
realizes by the private employment agencies on the ground of permit. The main attitude in the regulation
of labor migration is quota determined annually by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the
utilization of foreign labor force. The set-up of the quota definition, conditions and the set-up of release
issue to employees for the utilization of foreign labor force are determine by the Government of the
Republic of Kazakhstan. The main role plays the level of education. Professional level and previous
experience of foreign labor force must satisfy qualification demands to professions of workers and posts of
administers, specialists and clerks in accordance with qualification hand book of jobs and professions.
It is to note that if in the beginning of economical and political reforms the labor market and
employment of human resources were under hard regulation and in further period we can see some
flexibility in this direction. But it’s need to develop this flexibility in conditions of globalization and
integration into economic connections.
Закон Республики Казахстан "О занятости населения" от 30 декабря 1998 года /
Казахстанская правда, 5 января 1999 г., № 2
Закон Республики Казахстан "О республиканском бюджете на 1999 год” / Казахстанская
правда, 20 января 1999 г. №18
Постановление Правительства Республики Казахстан № 68 от 29 января 1999 г
Закон Республики Казахстан от 26 июня 1992 г. N 1437 “Об иммиграции” Ведомости, 1992 г.,
Закон Республики Казахстан от 13 декабря 1997 года N 204-1 “О миграции населения”
Ведомости Парламента Республики Казахстан, 1997 г., N 24
Указ Президента Республики Казахстан от 8 декабря 1997г., N 3783 “О создании Агентства
по миграции и демографии Республики Казахстан” Справка об Указе Президента РК от 08.12.97, N
Приложение к Постановлению Правительства Республики Казахстан за №322 от 17 марта
2004 года “Правила определения квоты, условий и порядка выдачи разрешений работодателям на
привлечение иностранной рабочей силы в Республику Казахстан”
CAREER BARRIERS OF WOMEN MANAGERS: GLASS CEILING Nazik Guler, Master Student Scientific Supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Zhanar Temirbekova Suleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Economics
Annotation In this article is considered glass ceiling is on obsatacle that women who aim to rise senior position
is goverment,educational institution, non profit organizations face in.The definiation of glass ceiling is
used to specify the uncertainty of the problem.
Аннотация В этой статье рассматривается вопрос стеклянного потолка, который является серьезным
препятствием для женщин в их карьере, когда они ставят перед собой цель подняться выше по
должности в правительстве, в учебном заведении и некоммерческих учреждениях. Понятие
стеклянного потолка употребляется как специфика обозначания проблемы неопределенности.
Түйін Бұл мақалада шыны төбе мәселесі әйелдердің өкіметте, оқу орындарында, коммерциялық
емес мекемелерде жоғарғы лауазымдарға көтерілу мақсаттары қарастырылған. Шыны төбе
түсініктемесі мәселенің белгізідік спецификасы ретінде қолданылған.
Özet Bu çalışmada kadın yöneticilerin sıkça karşılaştıkları cam tavan sorunu ele alınmaktadır.
Günümüzde cam tavan sorunu, kadınların üniversitelerde, sivil toplum örgütlerinde karyer açısından
yükselmelerinde ciddi engeller oluşturmaktadır.